Operation Passage A Force
The international community is in a fix in the Congo. Although they would like to install Kabila as president in the first round, they have to weigh this "Passage A Force" or installation by force, against the reaction of the people. Most signs are that they are preparing to install Kabila by any means necessary:
1. Movement of Angolan troops to the border of the Congo (Kabila's special guards are primarily Angolan security forces)
2. MONUC heightened alert
3. The European troops installation in the two Kasais and Kinshasa - these are areas where most resistance to a Kabila installation is expected
4. The repeated calls for calm from all corners from the French ambassador to the so-called Committee of the Wise
The above are key signs that the international community looks to install Kabila by force. The major calculation they are in the process of making or have already made is whether or not the resistance to Kabila will spiral the country into war once again or whether the security forces (Congolese and international) will simply have to do police work to put down disgruntled Congolese activists.
It is clear that the International community does not want to risk a second round, which would reduce the chances of the elections being fixed and put a Kabila presidency in jeopardy. Whatever is decided, we will know in less than 48 hours. Unfortunately, as has been the case in the Congo for over a century, the role of the international community will in all likelihood be decisive. When this occurs the Congolese people wind up losing.